Interesting. From my limited knowledge it seems that Turkey is the winner here. However when I look at Syria now it seems HTS only has power over a weak rump state with large areas controlled by Turkey, Kurds and US, and Israel now grabbing more land. Also the military and government infrastructure has been destroyed by massive Israeli bombing raids. I also would like to know about potential challenges to HTS rule now appearing - the 3,000 former members of the Syrian Army now in Iraq with all their equipment, the refusal of the Druze militia to disarm, the possibility of Alawite pushback, the formidable Hizbollah and its links to the Syrian Shia, the Hashd Al Shaabi in Iraq who could come to the defence of Syrian Shia, the Kurds and their control of the Northeast. Anyway it looks like Syria won’t be put back together again and I don’t see any period of stability ahead.
As your comment aptly highlights, Syria's future rests on an intricate web of variables. I believe the challenges facing the interim government will only grow larger. So, I would be very cautious about announcing a winner. In fact, I don’t believe in winners in such complex situations.
Thanks for the correction. Yes, on second thought you are right, it is best not to fall into the same type of thinking as the managers of national interests and frame events in terms of winners and losers. For me it is heartbreaking to see surrounding interests take advantage of a State severely weakened by war and sanctions to the detriment of its people who have been suffering for far too long. One can only hope that this will not lead to more chaos and war. I have subscribed to your Substack as part of my efforts to educate myself more on the background of the current situation.
Fascinating read. Thank you!
Interesting. From my limited knowledge it seems that Turkey is the winner here. However when I look at Syria now it seems HTS only has power over a weak rump state with large areas controlled by Turkey, Kurds and US, and Israel now grabbing more land. Also the military and government infrastructure has been destroyed by massive Israeli bombing raids. I also would like to know about potential challenges to HTS rule now appearing - the 3,000 former members of the Syrian Army now in Iraq with all their equipment, the refusal of the Druze militia to disarm, the possibility of Alawite pushback, the formidable Hizbollah and its links to the Syrian Shia, the Hashd Al Shaabi in Iraq who could come to the defence of Syrian Shia, the Kurds and their control of the Northeast. Anyway it looks like Syria won’t be put back together again and I don’t see any period of stability ahead.
As your comment aptly highlights, Syria's future rests on an intricate web of variables. I believe the challenges facing the interim government will only grow larger. So, I would be very cautious about announcing a winner. In fact, I don’t believe in winners in such complex situations.
Thanks for the correction. Yes, on second thought you are right, it is best not to fall into the same type of thinking as the managers of national interests and frame events in terms of winners and losers. For me it is heartbreaking to see surrounding interests take advantage of a State severely weakened by war and sanctions to the detriment of its people who have been suffering for far too long. One can only hope that this will not lead to more chaos and war. I have subscribed to your Substack as part of my efforts to educate myself more on the background of the current situation.
Thanks for sharing your excellent expertise!