As Turkey embarks on a potential new Kurdish peace process, a terror attack unfolded. How do Erdoğan's pragmatism and the PKK's shifting strategy intersect? The stakes have never been higher.
That last point is really astute, about how the PKK has changed and one I havent heard addressed. I think the 2nd reason you cited for the inştiative, changing regional dynamics is Erdoğans allies (MHP) beef and the way he gets them on board for the first reason, more years in office, the only thing he really cares about.
Your news and analysis are so good as always! I am much enjoying reading your book.
From my not-very-knowledgeable USA perspective, I am thinking this is an important point you make:
"its alliance with U.S. forces and with the establishment of autonomous canton in Northern Syria called Rojava, the PKK’s vision of itself and the Kurdish region has fundamentally changed."
I think the change regarding Öcalan might have to do with how the death of Mahsa Amini and the connection to Rojava in Iranian Kurdistan has greatly destabilized her country. Since the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize, the destabilization has increased, and some leadership in her country may be realizing they made some very bad choices that are now coming to a head. That could put a focus on Öcalan individually and lead to violent reactions from other PKK factions.
Whether this is correct or not, I think it reflects a significant position in USA current government policy and some public opinion as well. In this perhaps simplistic US view, Turkey's war against Rojava has been a major problem for many years. This became even more so when Turkey's reward for its Sweden joining NATO vote concession was to enable it to intensify that war further. These events could enable Turkey to be part of the solution to the current crisis rather than making it worse.
I just noticed that Bloomberg has something now on the news about Öcalan, but it doesn't mention Iran.
That last point is really astute, about how the PKK has changed and one I havent heard addressed. I think the 2nd reason you cited for the inştiative, changing regional dynamics is Erdoğans allies (MHP) beef and the way he gets them on board for the first reason, more years in office, the only thing he really cares about.
Your news and analysis are so good as always! I am much enjoying reading your book.
From my not-very-knowledgeable USA perspective, I am thinking this is an important point you make:
"its alliance with U.S. forces and with the establishment of autonomous canton in Northern Syria called Rojava, the PKK’s vision of itself and the Kurdish region has fundamentally changed."
I think the change regarding Öcalan might have to do with how the death of Mahsa Amini and the connection to Rojava in Iranian Kurdistan has greatly destabilized her country. Since the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize, the destabilization has increased, and some leadership in her country may be realizing they made some very bad choices that are now coming to a head. That could put a focus on Öcalan individually and lead to violent reactions from other PKK factions.
Whether this is correct or not, I think it reflects a significant position in USA current government policy and some public opinion as well. In this perhaps simplistic US view, Turkey's war against Rojava has been a major problem for many years. This became even more so when Turkey's reward for its Sweden joining NATO vote concession was to enable it to intensify that war further. These events could enable Turkey to be part of the solution to the current crisis rather than making it worse.
I just noticed that Bloomberg has something now on the news about Öcalan, but it doesn't mention Iran.
Very insightful! Thank you.