Key Questions on Syria's Recent Turmoil

Syria’s fragile balance has been shattered again raising critical questions about the future of Syria and the region. Let me break down the complex web of actors and agendas.

Anyone claiming to know exactly what’s going to happen in Syria is either guessing or grandstanding. And neither is helpful. Ignore them.

After nearly a decade and a half, Syria is back in the headlines. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a rebel group long confined to the northwest, has stunned observers by seizing Aleppo and now advancing toward Hama.

For years, it appeared that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had clawed back most of the territory lost to rebels since the uprising erupted in 2011, when peaceful protests in Deraa spiraled into a brutal civil war.

The last few years offered a mirage of stability, with Assad consolidating power thanks to the military and political backing of Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and Iran-linked militias like Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi. But this supposed calm masked the reality: Syria was never truly whole again. The country splintered into zones of influence. HTS controlled the northwest. Turkey-backed rebels (once the Free Syrian Army) held a sliver of the north. The Kurdish forces, aligned with the U.S. to fight ISIS, governed the northeast. Assad ruled much of the rest—but not with unchallenged authority.

A photo from 2022 of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Src: Syrian Observer.

Now, the uneasy status quo has shattered. HTS’s sudden resurgence raises questions about Assad’s grip on power and the fragile alliances that sustained it. The Syrian landscape, already crowded with competing interests, grows even more chaotic. There are way too many contingent scenarios to consider.

Here’s what I propose: instead of offering sweeping predictions, let’s approach this crisis by asking fundamental questions. Syria’s quagmire is as fast-moving as it is complex, with too many actors and agendas to untangle at once. Breaking it down piecemeal is the only way to begin understanding what’s unfolding.

What Happened All of a Sudden?

It wasn’t really “all of a sudden.” Close watchers of Syria knew HTS was gearing up to attack the Assad regime. Toppling Assad through force has always been their raison d’être. Over the years, they’ve evolved into a highly disciplined force, building what resembles a regular army. This latest offensive was allegedly planned for late August or early September but delayed after Turkey intervened, persuading them to hold off.

The shock wasn’t the attack itself—it was how quickly Assad’s forces crumbled, abandoning Aleppo, Syria’s largest and once most vibrant city.

If Assad Controlled Most of Syria, How Did He Lose Aleppo So Fast?

The reality is that Assad hasn’t been singlehandedly crushing the rebellion. His regime relied heavily on outside help: Russia’s air force, Wagner-style mercenaries, and Iranian-backed militias like Hezbollah. But in recent months, those critical allies have been distracted. Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, while Iran and Hezbollah are preoccupied with rising tensions with Israel. The second issue is the systemic corruption and fragmentation of Assad’s army. Like other military regimes in the region—think Egypt or Algeria—Syria’s army had long operated as a political and economic force. But years of civil war and economic collapse have turned parts of the military into something darker: a narco-state. The trafficking of Captagon, a highly addictive amphetamine, has created lucrative fiefdoms within the army, further weakening cohesion. This context helps explain why the Syrian regime's army was so flimsy against HTS's attack.

Who Is HTS? Is Turkey Behind the Offensive?

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly Jabhat al-Nusra (the Nusra Front), is an offshoot of Al-Qaeda. It governs Idlib in northwestern Syria and is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a man with a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. It is widely designated as a terrorist organization—including by Turkey.

In 2020, Russia and Turkey brokered a de-escalation deal in northern Syria to prevent clashes between rebel groups and Assad's forces. During that time, HTS aimed to reinvent itself and distance from its jihadist past. They went on a charm offensive, broadcasting al-Jolani in suits and showcasing his non-sectarian stance through their Telegram channels.

HTS is not a Turkish proxy. It’s far more powerful and organized than the rebel factions Turkey directly backs. That said, Turkey’s support for other rebel groups has indirectly benefited HTS. The group enjoys access to goods flowing from Turkey. Turkish intelligence officers have held periodic meetings with HTS leaders. Nonetheless, it's important to understand that Turkey doesn't have much control over HTS and wouldn't be too pleased if it ended up ruling Syria.

Still, Russia sees things differently. Russian commentators have framed HTS’s Aleppo offensive as Turkey’s doing, accusing Ankara of betraying its agreements with Moscow.

What About the Kurds?

Another important actor within Syria is the Kurds, led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Their armed wing, the YPG, is linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is considered a terrorist organization by the EU, the US, and, most importantly, Turkey. Turkey's darkest fear is an independent Kurdish state in Syria controlled by the PKK. The YPG played a key role in defeating ISIS and was supported by the US but has since been largely abandoned.

Currently, they are in negotiations with HTS and are relocating the civilian Kurdish population from Sheikh Maqsoud, Tel Rifaat, and Afrin as dictated by HTS. We are talking about the displacement of 100,000 Kurds—yet again.

Is Turkey Holding the Most Cards?

Many commentators say, "Well played, Erdoğan," when looking at the developments. I have my doubts. First, while the YPG seems unwilling to fight HTS directly, it might secure its de facto autonomous region in Rojava under an HTS-led government. This would deeply unsettle Turkey, ironically enough.

Second, if fighting escalates between Assad’s forces and the rebels, it could trigger another massive wave of displacement, with refugees once again heading toward Turkey’s border. This volatile situation could backfire spectacularly for Ankara, leading to the very outcomes it seeks to avoid: an empowered Kurdish entity and a new refugee crisis.

Will Assad Be Toppled? How does the future look?

I think Assad has been underestimated since 2011. He has proven he can be as brutal and pragmatic as his father. He would burn his country down rather than step down. The question is how much Russia, already overstretched, is willing to devote to pounding the rebel groups. Let us not forget, this volatility is also fertile ground for ISIS to spring back—a nightmare scenario. And this is before we even consider how this shake-up could shape Israel’s plans against Iran, the genocide in Gaza, or the already broken ceasefire with Hezbollah. Not to mention the Trump factor looming after January. Anything can happen at any moment, but in the short term, the outlook is undeniably darker and more precarious.