The U.S. suddenly dramatizes Turkey's ties with Hamas, despite being fully aware of every step in this relationship for decades. Now, the real question isn’t Turkey’s role—it’s Washington’s endgame.
Thanks for the analysis Ezgi Hanim, it, again, offers a different perspective to think upon.
As a market straegist for MENA+TR, I analyse things from an investment perspective, yet the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah looks shaky from the start. Following is what I wrote on this:
After weeks of negotiation, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah finally came into effect after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the US. Lebanon's army is tasked with helping make sure the ceasefire holds, while Israel will gradually withdraw its forces over 60 days as Lebanon's army takes control of territory. This is obviously good news, but the deal is fragile from the start: Hezbollah has not formally released a statement on the ceasefire yet, but an official commented that Hezbollah would emerge from the war stronger, and Israel says it may attack Hezbollah again if it re-arms. As another glimmer of hope, US President Biden said that the US, along with Egypt, Qatar and Türkiye, would make a fresh push for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The current ceasefire does not cover the ongoing fighting in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, but Hamas said it, too, is ready for a truce.
With these developments, theoretically, we should see two things in the markets: With reduced geopolitical risks, oil prices should come down and MENA credit should trade wider. However, we see some complications here: First, the war between Israel and Hamas has not disrupted the oil supply, thus a ceasefire would have no effect on the market dynamics at all, other than risk sentiment. Also, Israel may turn its attention to Iran as the new Trump administration fully backs Israel. This could seriously disrupt oil supply, push prices up and create an entirely different level of risk pricing. For MENA credit, geopolitical risk pricing was quite subtle in the past, and therefore we are not convinced that the ceasefire would cause a surge in MENA assets other than Israeli markets – and this is only if the ceasefire holds and Iran risk does not materialise.
Yet, peace is peace. As Eric Clapton says, “In the sun, the rain, the snow/ Love is lovely, so let it grow, let it grow”.
Thanks for the analysis Ezgi Hanim, it, again, offers a different perspective to think upon.
As a market straegist for MENA+TR, I analyse things from an investment perspective, yet the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah looks shaky from the start. Following is what I wrote on this:
After weeks of negotiation, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah finally came into effect after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the US. Lebanon's army is tasked with helping make sure the ceasefire holds, while Israel will gradually withdraw its forces over 60 days as Lebanon's army takes control of territory. This is obviously good news, but the deal is fragile from the start: Hezbollah has not formally released a statement on the ceasefire yet, but an official commented that Hezbollah would emerge from the war stronger, and Israel says it may attack Hezbollah again if it re-arms. As another glimmer of hope, US President Biden said that the US, along with Egypt, Qatar and Türkiye, would make a fresh push for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The current ceasefire does not cover the ongoing fighting in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, but Hamas said it, too, is ready for a truce.
With these developments, theoretically, we should see two things in the markets: With reduced geopolitical risks, oil prices should come down and MENA credit should trade wider. However, we see some complications here: First, the war between Israel and Hamas has not disrupted the oil supply, thus a ceasefire would have no effect on the market dynamics at all, other than risk sentiment. Also, Israel may turn its attention to Iran as the new Trump administration fully backs Israel. This could seriously disrupt oil supply, push prices up and create an entirely different level of risk pricing. For MENA credit, geopolitical risk pricing was quite subtle in the past, and therefore we are not convinced that the ceasefire would cause a surge in MENA assets other than Israeli markets – and this is only if the ceasefire holds and Iran risk does not materialise.
Yet, peace is peace. As Eric Clapton says, “In the sun, the rain, the snow/ Love is lovely, so let it grow, let it grow”.