Turkey Elections #2: Breaking... Will this song really end here?
Erdogan's probable rival İmamoğlu is sentenced to 2 years, 7 months and 15 days in prison. What now?
In the last section of my previous letter Turkey Elections #1, I mentioned that the two most likely presidential candidates of Turkey’s 6-party alliance are CHP’s (Republican People’s Party) chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. A court sentence issued on December 14, 2022 will have a great impact on this decision. I will elaborate.
The court sentenced İmamoğlu to 2 years, 7 months and 15 days in prison for insulting the members of Turkey’s supreme election council by calling them ‘fools’ three years ago. The court decision was premeditated and politically motivated. The previous trial judge was replaced due to his alleged complaints that he was being forced to sentence İmamoğlu to more than 2 years in prison, which would result in him being politically banned. 2 years is the threshold here. As the outcome of the trial displays, the new judge listened to the big boss and ruled in a way that would change the course of the opposition’s candidate.
Here is the tricky calculation: İmamoğlu will first appeal this decision in the Court of Appeals; if that fails, he will then proceed to a higher appeal court, the Court of Cassation. Before these two courts rule, the sentence is not final. So, he can still run as a presidential candidate and continue his work as the mayor of Istanbul. But… If he becomes the presidential candidate, and these two courts finalize the proceedings in the next six months, his candidacy will be dismissed, leaving Erdogan with no official rival to face. Under normal circumstances, the two-step appeal process takes about 2 years. However, Turkey’s judiciary has not operated ‘under normal circumstances’ for the last decade, as İmamoğlu’s sentence represents the last high-profile anomaly.
Angered by the court’s sentence and heeding his call, İmamoğlu’s supporters gathered in Istanbul’s Saraçhane square yesterday, where he and Meral Akşener, the chair of Good Party (İYİ Parti) – another key player in the six-party opposition alliance – spoke to the crowd promising that ‘this song does not end here.’ The very song that Erdogan loves and has been using to symbolise that he would emerge victorious against all hurdles raised against him. Conspicuously absent from the scene in Saraçhane was the chair of the CHP, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, as he was in Berlin attending prior engagements. The date of this trial and how the trial was politically motivated was common knowledge for months. Why would the chair of the CHP be in Berlin for apparently non-urgent meetings? This was considered a grave faux pas. The crowd in Saraçhane was palpably unhappy with Kılıçdaroğlu missing from the scene, while the supporters of the opposition on Twitter were in agreement that the candidacy for Kılıçdaroğlu should no longer be on the table.
Many were flabbergasted by this move against İmamoğlu. There is a consensus that the court rule was dictated by Erdogan. But, why would Erdogan want to side-line İmamoğlu, a move that would, in many people’s thinking, cause a backlash and increase opposition’s votes in the 2023 June elections. It just doesn’t make sense, many said. Is he gone erratic, many asked.
The latter question’s answer is yes indeed. And for a long time. However, this does not mean that this move has no ground in the realm of rationality. Authoritarian leaders have their own rationalization processes which usually appear erratic to plebs like us. Erdogan is more afraid of İmamoğlu than of the backlash that would result from him being side-lined. He is side-lining him, because he can. This is exactly what autocratic incumbents do. Simple. He had imprisoned the Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtaş after realising he posed a significant threat to his rule following the 7 June 2015 elections. Erdogan is doing it yet again. Turkey’s regime has been defined as competitive authoritarianism by political scientist for some time. I believe recent developments ‘promoted’ Turkey’s regime to a full-scale authoritarianism.1
Now what are the options for the opposition alliance? What shall be done?
The opposition alliance could take the risk and appoint İmamoğlu as its candidate. As contingency for the scenario where the appeal process swiftly finalized by the courts before the election and İmamoğlu’s candidacy is automatically cancelled, they can have a spare candidate in the ballot. But who would that be? Would Kılıçdaroğlu, as the chair of the main opposition, consent to become ‘the spare’? I have doubts.
The second option is to not take any risk and move forward with Kılıçdaroğlu as the candidate. As of yesterday, this option is as risky as the first one because appointing Kılıçdaroğlu would be politically moving against the tide and the obvious will of the opposition’s supporters.
In both cases, the authoritarian election wizard, that is Erdogan, has the upper hand right now - unless the opposition alliance comes up with a surprisingly brilliant plan. On the other hand, we at least know that Erdogan is afraid, very afraid, and fear makes him make mistakes, more of them.
Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, ‘Elections without Democracy: The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism’, Journal of Democracy, 13:2, April 2002.